Jordan and Israel signed their historic peace deal on October 26, 1994, establishing full diplomatic ties and marking the end of sour relations which saw the countries on opposing sides throughout two major regional conflicts. While they have been in a state of “cold peace” since then, with some minor clashes between them, last October saw a considerable deterioration in relations.

King of Jordan, Abdullah II, warned near the end of November that relations with Israel were at an “all-time low.”

Amman had recalled its ambassador to Israel in protest of two Jordanians being detained without any charges in Israel. Though Israel had soon after released them, preventing a full-blown diplomatic crisis, tensions still remained. King of Jordan, Abdullah II, warned near the end of November that relations with Israel were at an “all-time low.”

This had come around the 25th anniversary of the peace treaty between the two states, which neither had observed in a ceremony as they were expected to, raising concerns over the severity of their deteriorating ties.

Yet this factor alone does not completely explain why Jordanian Israeli relations are jeopardized.

Avoiding specifics, King Abdullah put it in these words: “The problems that we have had with Israel [are] bilateral.”

“Now I hope, whatever happens in Israel over the next two or three months, we can get back to talking to each other on simple issues that we haven’t been able to talk about for the last two years,” the King added.

Some figures within Jordan’s parliament have called for more drastic measures. Jordanian MP and chairman of the Palestine Committee, Yahya Al-Saud, remarked that “the Jordanian-Israeli relationship is in its worst conditions, so it is necessary to take advantage of the deterioration in these relations and expel the Israeli ambassador.”

Yahya al-Saud’s words indicate Jordan’s deep-rooted tensions with Israel. Much of the country’s public share this sentiment too, especially as many of Jordan’s citizens are Palestinian exiles or their descendants.

Over the years Israeli Jordanian relations have been tested mostly by smaller, less critical incidents, that have not done any major damage, nothing near what has occurred in recent months.

Over the years Israeli Jordanian relations have been tested mostly by smaller, less critical incidents, that have not done any major damage, nothing near what has occurred in recent months.

In 2017, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strangely embraced the Israeli security official who had shot dead two Jordanians at the Israeli embassy in Amman, indicating a divisive sentiment.

Though showing frustration towards Israel, Amman is evidently keen to secure its ties with the Jewish state. In 2016 Jordan and Israel secured a deal for Israel to pump gas into Amman. This triggered protests from thousands of Jordanians, showing much of the country opposes strong connections with Israel.

And these bonds are continuously tested.

The United States’ so-called “peace” plan – known as the Deal of the Century – unveiled in January by President Trump and adviser Jared Kushner, has been criticized as normalizing Israel’s annexation and occupation of the West Bank, which has been under Israeli military control since 1967.

The deal gives Israel a green light to annex the strategic Jordan Valley in occupied Palestine, virtually on Jordan’s border.

The deal gives Israel a green light to annex the strategic Jordan Valley in occupied Palestine, virtually on Jordan’s border. The Jordan Valley connects the eastern mountains of the occupied West Bank and the Sea of Galilee in the north, with the Dead Sea in the south.

Netanyahu had previously stated his intentions to annex the Jordan Valley, but not only would acting on it be a violation of international law, which would effectively crush the hopes of an independent Palestinian state, it is a highly provocative move towards Amman.

Amman has criticized this part of the Trump deal and has warned it will not recognize any annexation of such a strategic area.

“Jordan will not be part of any plan that does not match its interests,” an unnamed official told the Jordan Times. “We will not draw borders and we will not give Jordanian citizenship to anyone. We have constants to protect in word and deed,” the source added.

Yet Trump’s deal has given Israel even more of the impunity it has historically enjoyed from the United States, meaning it will have more confidence to carry it out its expansion, which could arguably lead to more divisions with Jordan.

Though Arab states – including Saudi Arabia and the UAE – had initially voiced support for Trump’s deal, the Arab League later condemned it after becoming more aware of the terms.

And while Jordanians in Amman have protested Israel’s actions and its desire to arrogate the Jordan Valley, currently Amman would rather avoid cutting ties with Israel.

After all, its major importing partners are Saudi Arabia (2nd), the United States (3rd), and the United Arab Emirates (4th), meaning that it will not want to take a stance that widely differs from these countries—especially since the US strongly backs Israel, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE are keen to increase ties with it.

Hence, Jordan exercising restraint to not go beyond light criticism of Israel would avoid jeopardizing its relations with these other countries.

Writers for the prominent Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz have suggested that Israel’s right-wing faction does not want peace with Jordan’s government.

Meanwhile, writers for the prominent Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz, such as Ori Nir and Rogel Alpher, have suggested that Israel’s right-wing faction does not want peace with Jordan’s government, citing how commentators within these parties see Abdullah’s rule as a threat.

There are, however, political insiders who caution Israel from increasing tensions with its Jordanian neighbor.

Former chief of Mossad (Israel’s national intelligence agency), Ephraim Halevy, who has often been honest about Israel’s foreign policy stances, said in an interview that he sees the move towards the Jordan Valley as a “great danger to the peace treaty.”

Halevy added, “I think that the danger comes not from the Jordanians but from us, from Israel…Over the years, Israeli governments have distanced themselves from Jordan; they have also demonstrated contempt toward Jordan while Jordan’s geo-political situation has greatly worsened.”

Israel’s desires to annex the Jordan Valley does indeed show a lack of respect for Amman and its wishes. Moreover, as writer Rogel Alpher argues, Israel seeks not only to crush the hopes of Palestinian statehood, it also aims to achieve a deep-seated Zionist idea: that Jordan is Palestine, and therefore should be turned into such a state.

Israel seeks not only to crush the hopes of Palestinian statehood, it also aims to achieve a deep-seated Zionist idea: that Jordan is Palestine, and therefore should be turned into such a state.

The Israeli right – which is increasingly racist and extreme, supports this scheme.

Alpher explained that “the [Israeli right’s] goal is to humiliate Abdullah, to drive him crazy, until he suspends or revokes the peace agreement – and then it will be possible to act to remove him from power.”

Though the annexation of the Jordan Valley will only be considered after Israel’s next election in March, it will certainly be a decisive point in how Israel’s peace treaty with its neighbors, and Jordan especially, holds out.