Fatemeh is a 67-year-old Iranian woman in Tehran, where she has been living for the past 25 years. Her husband passed away in 2014 after fighting cancer for several years. “You know, I’ve broken my feet and hands a couple of times [from] falling on the ground,” she said in an interview with Inside Arabia, while explaining some of her daily difficulties due to aging.
Fatemeh has five children who don’t come to see her too often. “They are busy with their own life and work. I’m alone by myself most days, but [now] because of this coronavirus, they come more often so that I don’t have to leave the house for shopping,” she said.
Fatemeh is just one of the millions of Iranian elders who are faced with unique challenges, including but not limited to having no income, financial support, or descent health coverage.
Last August, the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) announced that the country’s population has reached 83 million in the current Iranian calendar year (ending March 21, 2020), up from 80 million people in 2016 when the country’s latest census was conducted.
According to Ali Akbar Mahzoon, the General Director of Population, Labor, and Census at SCI, 47 percent of Iran’s population is between the age of 30 to 64 and 9.9 percent of it (8.3 million) are above 60.
Although once regarded as a young country with over 60 percent of its population under the age of 30, Iranian officials have been warning about a major demographic change and its consequences for several years.
Although it was once regarded as a young country with over 60 percent of its population under the age of 30, Iranian officials have been warning about a major demographic change and its consequences for the past several years.
One of the latest such remarks was made by Alireza Raeesi, Iran’s Deputy Minister of Health, who warned in September that “with the continuation of the current [population growth rate] trend, Iran will have the largest population of elders in the region and will be among the most aged populations worldwide in the next 30 years.”
Demographic Shift
Iran’s population policy has undergone an unusual fluctuation over the past four decades. Following the Islamic Revolution in 1979, it witnessed a baby boom period during the Iran–Iraq war (1979–1987) when the total fertility rate was as high as 6.53 percent.
At that time, Iran’s population nearly doubled from 34 to 62 million. Following the war and in the face of an exhausted economy, in addition to the challenge of an increasingly young population, the country reversed its population policy in 1988.
Under the new policy, having two children became the norm due to the massive state planning program. Considered as one of the most successful family planning programs in the world, Iran managed to reduce its population growth rate to 1.29 percent according to census data in 2011.
The successful plan in addition to a dramatic increase in in the country’s life expectancy (from 54.67 years in 1980 to 75.5 years in 2015) has all led to the current demographic change in Iran.
Source: Theglobalgraph.com
The findings of the 2011 census raised red flags for the Iranian authorities causing the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei to make a rare remark in October 2012, publicly acknowledging a “mistake” and calling family planning programs the “West’s hostile policy” against Muslim countries.
Since then, Iranian families have been urged to have more children. However, with the country’s struggling economy and rising emigration by its young population, its declining growth rate is expected to continue for the coming decades.
Socio-Economical Factors
Bahar is a 34-year-old Iranian girl who works at a private company in Tehran. “These days very few people are willing to marry and have a family. Many of those who do, end up getting a divorce and of those who don’t, many refuse to have children due to economic and social uncertainties,” she told Inside Arabia.
“My biggest fear of [the] future is that I can’t have any savings and we are hearing that the pension funds are already broke and won’t be able to pay for our retirement in future,” she said.
“Our society is not a great place for old people. My father is 80 years old, there is no place he can work or keep himself busy other than just going to a park or a mosque,” Bahar stressed.
Government Measures
Mohammadreza Asadi, a board member of Iran Medical Society Group, believes the country is planning and preparing itself well to deal with a new wave of elders in the coming years.
“A national document on elders has been finalized. According to this document, the role and responsibilities of all related bodies have clearly been set,” Asadi told Inside Arabia.
Pointing to the fact that all related bodies, including the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Labor, are part of the working group, he added: “We launched a pilot program in Isfahan back in September to make the city a friendlier place for the elderly. This is a joint program with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).”
Asadi, who is also the former deputy of Tehran’s State Welfare Organization, stated further that “currently some 30,000 seniors are receiving all sorts of services at 570 centers across the country which include 24/7 in-office daily care, and at-home services.”
Although the figure seems to be a small fraction of the current senior population in Iran, Asadi says unlike western countries, in Iran, demand for using the care centers is not that high.
“We only have about a 20 percent waiting [list]. A good share of our facilities is not being used because of cultural issues. Society still doesn’t have a positive feeling about elderly care centers. That needs to change,” he said.
A new approach that has been initiated are “Support Houses” in which up to 10 elders will live together as housemates while having their own private space. “They’ll receive regular medical examinations there, but they’ll be doing their regular activities, including cooking and cleaning, themselves,” Asadi stressed.
Despite government measures, the general notion among ordinary Iranians and some experts remains that the country is far unprepared for what has been described as a tsunami of the elderly.
Despite government measures, the general notion among ordinary Iranians and some experts remains that the country is far unprepared for what has been described as a tsunami of the elderly.
Although the World Health Organization considers aging a global trend and estimates that 22 percent of the global population will be above 60 years old by 2050. Yet given Iran’s growing regional power and influence over the past decade, and considering the role of population trends in state power dynamics and its relevance to national security and economic growth, it should not be a surprise that the issue has raised red flags in Tehran.
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