President Donald Trump announced that a U.S. special operations team had launched an overnight raid on October 27 and killed the so-called Islamic State’s top leader, Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi.
Counter terrorism experts, such as Professor David Des Roches, who spoke to Inside Arabia, are now downplaying Trump’s assertion that “Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s demise reflects America’s relentless pursuit of terrorist leaders and U.S. commitment to the enduring defeat of ISIS.”
While ISIS under Baghdadi’s command became one of the most brutal terrorist groups in the world, and at the peak of the self-declared caliphate, covered territory across Syria and Iraq, at the time of Baghdadi’s death, he was a caliph without a caliphate. Baghdadi spent his last year on the run, with very little contact outside a small group of aids. But ISIS was otherwise hitting targets in different parts of the world.
Professor Des Roches is a counter terrorism expert at the National Defense University. He argues that killing ISIS’s top leader may have provided an instant feeling of victory in the war against terrorism, but it will not lead to its ultimate demise.
“Baghdadi was really more of a spiritual leader than an operational commander, and ISIS is a decentralized, non-command-driven group, so the prospects of its insurgency are actually pretty good through the Islamic world and we are likely to see a pop up of its activities,” he told Inside Arabia.
Islamic State confirmed the death of its leader and announced that Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi had been named the new Islamic State leader.
On October 31, Islamic State confirmed the death of its leader and announced that Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi had been named the new Islamic State leader.
This succession is a reminder that terrorist groups do not go away when a top leader is killed; simply recall al-Qaeda’s succession under Ayman al-Zwahiri following the death of bin Laden.
Future Battleground
Professor Des Roches believes that ISIS tends to take root in areas that have Islamic populations and are poorly governed.
“That describes a large portion of Africa, where government institutions are generally not strong and the security forces are ineffective while the population is having socio-economic grievances.”
ISIS has also been famous for exploiting ungoverned areas and chaos resulting from civil wars, just as the Iraqi insurgency and Syrian civil war created a safe haven for its fighters to hold territory in both countries.
Several countries in the Sahel area are now vulnerable to ISIS penetration. ISIS has also served as an inspiration for other jihadi groups in Egypt, Libya, Somalia, Niger, Mali, Senegal, Kenya, and Nigeria.
Prof. David Des Roches at a talk on Religious Extremism at the Westminster Institute. Aug. 12, 2017 (Photo YouTube)
Professor Des Roches explains:
“Most of the people who are attracted to ISIS, particularly the non-directed supporters of the group are generally living in situations where they see themselves marginalized and they feel the only way to change their ordeal is to resort to violence against the dominant order.”
While killing al-Baghdadi is considered a serious blow to ISIS, it is extremely difficult to defeat its ideology.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has acknowledged that while killing al-Baghdadi is considered a serious blow to ISIS, it is extremely difficult to defeat its ideology.
William Wechsler, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for combatting terrorism, has predicted that “ISIS will likely remain a decentralized organization with a declared presence in countries in the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, and a demonstrated reach into Europe and North America.”
Killing Terrorist Leaders vs. Tackling Root Causes
Over the past 18 years, the U.S. has adopted a strategy of killing leaders of terrorist organizations. That is why President Trump has said he always had his sights set on the top guy.
“Capturing or killing Baghdadi has been the top national security priority of my administration,” Trump said in his announcement.
Previously, Barak Obama had adopted the same strategy and considered the U.S. killing of bin Laden in Pakistan a victory in the U.S. war on terrorism.
Experts describe such an approach as a “kingpin strategy” which may provide instant gratification without addressing the root causes of terrorism which may take years, if not decades.
Experts describe such an approach as a “kingpin strategy” which may provide instant gratification without addressing the root causes of terrorism which may take years, if not decades.
The United States is promising there will be no let-up in its pursuit of the Islamic State terror group despite the death of self-declared caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, according to the U.S. president. “We know the successors,” he added. “And we already have them in our sights.”
Trump said U.S. forces had also recovered “highly sensitive material and information . . . much having to do with ISIS origins, future plans, things that we very much want.” But military and intelligence officials admit that tracking down and eliminating key IS emirs and operatives, while serving to degrade the terror group’s capabilities, has not been sufficient to lead to its ultimate demise.
“Tracking down ISIS leaders will take a sustained effort for a long period of time, but the harder part is to deal with the ISIS-inspired groups, who are not taking directions from ISIS leaders, but who launch their own massive attacks relying on its ideology of using violence to achieve political and economic goals,” Des Roches said.
He recommends that dealing with the root causes of violence is a better investment for the U.S.
“The same way Argentina dealt with its terrorism problem: implement democratic reforms to produce governments that represent the interest of all their folks—and truly participatory—so that citizens would realize that they can actually participate in the decision-making and their needs are addressed.”
Then, Des Roches believes, people will not be vulnerable to resort to the ideology of violence or terrorism. However, he admitted that a large part of the world is not ready to take such drastic reforms.
The other problem is that there is no one root cause of terrorism.
The other problem is that there is no one root cause of terrorism, and some of the ones policy makers pointed to early after the September 11 attacks, such as poverty, turned out not to be strong drivers of terrorism at all.
One irony is that Trump’s withdrawal strategy actually could deal with one root cause of terrorism: the U.S. military presence in the Middle East.
Bin Laden in 1996 cited the presence of American troops in Saudi Arabia as one reason he was declaring war on the United States; Trump has repeatedly said he wants to get out of the region entirely.
But Trump’s support of repressive rulers such as President Abdel Fattah al Sisi in Egypt adds fuel to the fire. This is especially true when the U.S. president calls them: “My favorite dictator.”
